Infectious Disease

Stochastic multi-disciplinary Infectious Disease Modelling, supporting insurers’ pandemic risk assessment.

Case Studies

A life insurance company sought to update their pandemic risk model in response to the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. They required a tailored approach that incorporated high-resolution mortality data by socioeconomic groups and learnings from COVID-19’s behavioural and vaccine response. Leveraging our research and modelling expertise we constructed a bespoke stochastic event set using SEIR modelling and novel intervention embedding techniques. By integrating high-resolution mortality experience data and insights from the COVID-19 pandemic, our model enabled more accurate pandemic risk assessment, bespoke to the underlying health & sociodemographic profile of the portfolio.
A Catastrophe Modelling agent required support modelling the impact of COVID-19 for Workers Compensation and Business Interruption Insurance. We carried out the model validation, ensuring the parameters were appropriate and reflected the scientific literature. We also provided independent review of Expert Judgements used in the modelling. At a time of significant uncertainty, our report ensured the reliability and robustness of the agent’s modelling approach for their clients.

Our flexible approach supports the modelling of new and established pathogens and the impact of interventions and behavioural modifications. We have an in-house stochastic SEIR Model that can be used to produce deterministic scenarios, stochastic event sets and Exceedance Probability curves for any combination of pathogen type, characteristics and intervention. We have calibrated our novel coronavirus model to both the United States and the United Kingdom, and are able to produce a full stochastic distribution for future novel coronavirus pandemics. We also have an in-house approach to estimating both direct and indirect excess mortality for insured lives, allowing for differences in demographic, health and socioeconomic status.

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17 High Street,
SS17 0HD



Company No: 7980921
Data Protection Act Registration No: Z3363643
VAT No: 190 8750 82

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